A Case Study of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through the Lens of Eco-Social Contract

Executive summary

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces growing pressures from demographic change, economic inequality, and climate impacts such as water scarcity and environmental degradation. Historically, social contracts in the region prioritized protection and state provision of services while limiting political participation. However, rising youth populations, economic disparities, and the aftermath of the Arab Spring have intensified demands for more inclusive governance and sustainable development. In response, debates around a new eco-social contract are emerging, linking social protection, green economic transition, and environmental governance. Initiatives such as Morocco’s large-scale solar projects illustrate this shift, but progress depends on stronger civic participation, inclusive policies, and improved environmental governance to address social and ecological challenges.

Context and Background

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which comprises 18 countries and has a population of approximately 425.8 million as of 2019, confronts significant challenges stemming from demographic shifts and climate change. The combination of declining infant mortality rates and high fertility rates has led to a "youth bulge," intensifying demands for job creation and educational opportunities (Hafner et al., 2023). Additionally, climate change exacerbates critical issues in the region, including water scarcity, food insecurity, and environmental degradation, with many MENA countries ranking among the most water-stressed globally.

In the 1950s and 1960s, populist authoritarian republics emerged in the MENA region, establishing a social contract centered on the protection of individual and collective security. These governments began providing essential social services, including social protection. According to Loewe (2021), the foundation of this social contract rests on the provision of three Ps: Protection, Provision, and Participation. However, MENA governments, both historically and in contemporary times, have emphasized the protection and provision of services while failing to offer meaningful participation for citizens in political processes and decision-making.

The MENA region exhibits a stark economic contrast between oil-rich Gulf states and resource-poor countries. Major oil exporters like Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have experienced substantial GDP per capita growth due to oil revenues, making them among the wealthiest nations globally. In contrast, countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco face lower GDP per capita.

Politically, the region has undergone significant upheaval, especially during the Arab Spring in 2011, which ignited widespread protests and claims  for democratic reforms and social justice. Governments in MENA countries grapple with authoritarianism, sectarianism, and ongoing armed conflicts and wars.

The MENA region also boasts a rich cultural heritage and a young population increasingly advocating for change, women's rights, and economic opportunities, despite social restrictions and hardship. This dynamic interaction of economic challenges and political aspirations continues to shape the region's future.

Describing the Elements of Eco Social Contract

Scope

Local actors, including civil society organizations, business leaders, climate activists, and local governments like the Moroccan monarchy, are advocating for the establishment of a new social contract. Their collective efforts have resulted in significant green transition initiatives, such as the development of the world’s largest solar energy project in Morocco. However, the region still faces challenges due to a lack of cohesive policies and reforms needed to support an inclusive and sustainable social contract.

Temporal dimension

The uprisings that began in 2010 across many MENA countries can be viewed as a response to the deterioration of the previous social contract (Loewe et al., 2021). Civil society groups and youth activists have been at the forefront of movements demanding a transformation of the social contract in the region. However, these calls for a new social contract have faced strong resistance from government and political elites. The resultant conflicts and civil wars in many MENA countries stem from the refusal to negotiate or reform the existing social contract.

Substantive content

The increasing population growth and climate crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have led to the emergence of a new eco-social contract in the region. The green transition can significantly influence the transformation of the social contract in MENA. Some states view it as an opportunity to create jobs, build sustainable and inclusive economies, and combat the adverse effects of climate change. Morocco serves as a prime example of a country advancing the green transition through an eco-social contract.

Analytical Dimensions

Contestation and bargaining

Governments across MENA face increasing pressure to meet the basic needs of a growing population, which includes providing adequate housing, sanitation, healthcare, education, and jobs. These issues complicate efforts to alleviate poverty, bridge the wealth gap, and enhance overall living standards, presenting significant regional challenges. Civil society and youth groups started civic movement demanding new social contract that address the political social and economic turbulences in the region.

Key relationships

Various actors, including external bodies such as the European Union, the World Bank, and the African Development Bank, as well as internal stakeholders like civil society groups, climate activists, the business community, and political elites, are actively promoting a new social contract in the MENA region. This new contract aims to transform the existing framework and address ecological and social challenges in the region. Additionally, external actors provide financial and technical support for its implementation.

Institutions and policies

The nationalization of resources has created a social contract where governments distribute wealth through subsidies and social benefits without taxing citizens. However, this arrangement is becoming strained due to climate change and demographic shifts. These factors have increased demands for services and social protection amid rising living costs and resource scarcity. In response, governments in the MENA region are reversing their energy subsidy policies and introducing social cash transfer programmes to support low-income households (Loewe et al., 2021).

Norms and values

Despite the threats posed by climate change and rapid population growth, countries in the MENA region are focusing on a new social contract framework that promotes inclusive economic development and social protection services as well as projects to green the economy and protect natural resources. Many of these countries are reversing policies that contribute to climate change, such as energy subsidy programmes that have adverse effects on the environment and biodiversity.

Outcome and Impact Analysis

Success Indicators

Indicators of progress toward an eco-social contract in the MENA region include the expansion of renewable energy initiatives, the integration of environmental sustainability with job creation, and policy reforms that link climate action with social protection and economic development. Increasing investment in green infrastructure and the gradual reform of environmentally harmful subsidy systems also signal shifts toward more sustainable development pathways.

A notable example is Morocco's Noor-Ouarzazate complex, one of the largest concentrating solar powers (CSP) facilities in the world. This renewable energy project provides power to over one million Moroccans, reduces the country's oil consumption by approximately 2.5 million tons, and cuts carbon emissions by 760,000 tons per year, according to a World Bank report. Additionally, the project has created employment opportunities for youth in the region.

Lessons Learned

The experience of eco-social contracting in the MENA region highlights several important lessons. First, environmental sustainability, social protection, and economic opportunities must be addressed together. Climate challenges such as water scarcity and environmental degradation are closely linked with employment, social stability, and public welfare, particularly for the region’s large youth population.

Second, transparent governance and meaningful citizen participation are essential. The erosion of the traditional social contract and the protests during and after the Arab Spring demonstrate that policies focused only on provision and protection are insufficient without political inclusion and dialogue with civil society and youth groups.

Third, green transition initiatives can serve as entry points for broader socioeconomic transformation. Renewable energy projects and environmental reforms have the potential to generate jobs, diversify economies, and strengthen social protection systems, but they require coherent policies and long-term institutional commitment.

Finally, addressing local environmental and socioeconomic grievances, such as water access, pollution, and livelihood impacts, is critical for maintaining public trust and preventing social unrest. Effective eco-social contracts therefore depend on inclusive policy making, cooperation between governments and societal actors, and integration of environmental governance with broader development goals.

Recommendations

Strengthen Civic Engagement and Political Participation: Governments and civil society organizations could collaborate to better integrate citizen voices into decision-making processes, thereby fostering greater transparency and accountability. MENA countries may also consider creating more opportunities for meaningful participation of citizens in politics and decision making to support a sustainable and inclusive eco-social contract and more effectively address the social and political grievances that have contributed to unrest in the region.

Promote Inclusive Policies: Economic and environmental policies could be designed to be more inclusive, with particular attention to the needs of marginalized groups and women, to help reduce inequalities.

Establish Universal Social Protection Programmes: Existing social cash transfers might gradually be transformed into a universal, human rights–based social protection system that provides income security to all segments of society, particularly women, children, and marginalized communities.

Future Directions

Expansion of Green Projects: Countries in the region could continue to invest in large-scale renewable energy projects and explore innovative green technologies, such as clean hydrogen, to diversify their economies and create additional jobs.

Comprehensive Environmental Governance: Frameworks may be established that ensure environmental justice, where communities have opportunities to participate in the management of natural resources and are protected from adverse environmental impacts.

Address Localized Grievances: Governments could place greater emphasis on localized environmental concerns through dedicated programs aimed at resolving specific community issues, thereby helping to restore trust between citizens and the state.

References and Further Reading

• Loewe, M., Jawad, R., & Rana Jawad, D. (2018). SOCIAL PROTECTION IN THE MENA COUNTRIES: PROSPECTS FOR A NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT? Introducing social protection in the Middle East and North Africa: Prospects for a new social contract? In International Social Security Review (Vol. 71).

• Loewe, M., Zintl, T., & Houdret, A. (2021). The social contract as a tool of analysis: Introduction to the special issue on “Framing the evolution of new social contracts in Middle Eastern and North African countries.” World Development, 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104982

• Sabry, M. I. (n.d.). The Green Transition in Morocco: Extractivity, Inclusivity, and the Stability of the Social Contract.

• Auktor, G. V., & Loewe, M. (2010). Subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: Strategic options and their consequences for the social contract. https://doi.org/10.23661/dp12.2021

• Cooper, R. (n.d.). Climate change risks and opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa Question What are some of the climate change risks and opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa, including for mitigation, adaptation and resilience?

• El-Haddad, A. (2020). Redefining the social contract in the wake of the Arab Spring: The experiences of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. World Development, 127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104774